Election predictions

[David Hayden]

(11-05-2020 08:16 PM)mfleming Wrote:  Interesting exercise! However, looking at the Arizona count, with 76.72% of the votes counted, you have [...]

My equation accounts for other candidates in that it checks for how many votes are needed for the two candidates to have an equal number. An earlier version incorrectly computed how much they needed to get 50% of the votes.

However, the program still assumes that the remaining votes will be divided between the two candidates. I could reduce the remaining votes by the same portion of 3rd party votes that are in the counted votes, but I figured that would have a very small effect.

Indeed, it's fun! I keep my Panamatik 34e next to my seat in front of the TV so I can run the program all the time!