|Re: The future of calculators is dead|
Message #21 Posted by Valentin Albillo on 19 June 2003, 7:17 a.m.,
in response to message #12 by Mike
Caveat reader: all that follows is My Humble Opinion,
I mean no disrespect at all to anyone's opinions, much less Mike's,
and I don't claim I'm in possession of the one and only thruth, or that I'm necessarily right and Mike's necessarily wrong. That said, let's begin:
"For someone who has a PDA, there is NO NEED for a calculator."
That's your opinion. And I'm not so sure you believe it 100% yourself. Don't you ever grab a calculator for a quick math ? Or will you make us believe you actually care to use your PDA to find a percentage, add up something, etc ?
Myself, I do use and need a calculator frequently, not for very complicated things but for such things as computing taxes, discounts, costs, and the like. Such computations require the reliability only a good keyboard interface can provide, and I find PDAs most
uncomfortable and unreliable in that aspect.
"Calculators will have a life, only as long as PDAs are costly. But PDA prices are dropping rapidly. Soon, everyone will have one. Think not?"
Think not. Not everyone does like and use PDAs, even if they were given for free. But everyone must use some sort of calculator for most everyday math chores, even if simple.
Most people make do with 4-bangers, some fortunate people use their 32S, 42S or whatever. But if you've got a suitable calculator at hand, you never reach for a PDA.
"Well, I've been to Japan recently. Japan is years ahead of the U.S. in terms of consumer electronics. You know the new rage picture phones? They have had them for years in Japan."
Yes, and kids play Pokémon over the phone, so what ? Japan's always been a consumer's craze, where people crave and rave for all kind of gadgets we would consider just plain stupid, to say the least. And ? Are you implying that local Japanese fads are the thing to copycat in the US ? Come on !
"You know, I can actually recall people saying,
"The CD will never catch on"
A little biased, don't you think ? Don't you also recall people saying "Quadraphonics will never catch on" or "DIVX (the original DVD rental system) will never catch on", or
the many other fads that never did actually catch on ?
And who's saying PDAs will never catch on, anyway ?
"All that is needed for anyone to fullfil that destiny is to have a programmable box, suitable for a calculator. Well guess what? A PDA is that box."
Fine, go on. Let us know of your progress, please.
"Think about it. A box not much larger than the size of a 15C, that holds GigaBytes of program, RAM and storage, is currently available. It comes in color, plays your music, calls your friends, takes photos and holds any variety of calculator that you like. We may like the nice HP buttons, the functionality, the reputation, the RPN the, the, the. But these are irrelevant concerns for
the future consumers of the world."
Sure. Seems to me a book case of the "Hog's Principle", which reads as follows:
"If something's good, more is better"
Sometimes, just the right thing is far better. I would never exchange/trade you a single, fine HP-15C for a box choke-full of those wonderful gizmos you describe.
And what's more, let's see 20 years from now just how much is my HP-15C worth, and how much is your choke-full box of today's PDAs' worth. That also applies to many other classic HPs as well. Care to make a bet ?
"The business model for producing consumer electronics is not governed by a few serious collectors. It is governed by consumers."
Sure. That's why we are seeing more and more garbage products all the time, designed to not last, produced as cheaply as possible in China, Taiwan, or somewhere else where labour costs are as low as possible whatever the quality, of abysmal physical characteristics, and instantly obsolete.
I rest my case. And my HP-15C will be with me long after you've thrown your 23th PDA to the garbage bin.