(35S) Conditional Probabilities  Bayes Formula

11252014, 03:00 PM
(This post was last modified: 06152017 01:26 PM by Gene.)
Post: #1




(35S) Conditional Probabilities  Bayes Formula
Bayes’ formula is useful for calculating conditional probabilities.
If we set p(E) = A = .001 as the probability of a member of the population having a certain illness E, p(FE) = B = .99 as the probability of a positive result for the illness test F if the member has the illness E, p(FE) = C = .05 as the probability of a positive result for the illness test F if the member does NOT have the illness E, a socalled false positive, then the formula D = A * B / ( A * B + ( 1 – A) * C ) can be used to calculate p(EF) = D ie the probability of having the illness E if the test F is positive, which for the given data is .019 

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