Probability

[Didier Lachieze]

Here is a quick program to calculate, based on your estimated number of debris reaching earth, the probability to be hit by a debris on a 1m² area:

Code:

EXPORT Tiangong1(N)   //N: estimated numbers of debris reaching earth
BEGIN
LOCAL h,p,R,S;
R:=6371000;                 //Earth radius (m)
h:=2*SIN(43°00′00″)*R;      //Distance between 43° north and 43° south plans
S:=2*π*R*h;                 //Earth surface area where a debris can fall
p:=N*1/S;                   //Probability to be hit by a debris on any 1m² area within the boundaries
END;

EDIT: I initially wrongly multiplied p by 0.3 (70% of Earth being oceans) but the % of oceans doesn't change the probability of a given square meter area to be hit by a debris.