Probability

[DrD]

Go figure:

Suppose an 8.5 ton Chinese space station went out of control, and re-entered the Earth's atmosphere. If the predicted debris impact zone could be anywhere within the boundaries of 43° North latitude, and 43° South latitude, and given this event occur's some time next year, with other orbital parameters not known at this time, what are the chances, any particular spot, within the boundary, will be hit with debris remnants?

Not being wise in the ways of this field of study, does this problem even have a feasible solution? Zoner's, keep your hard-hat ready!

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/4676492/ch...ist-warns/