unwritten laws of data processing, circa 1973

[pier4r]

For estimates, especially in jobs where new projects are, well, new, but the difficulty is comparable, I try to collect previous solution times to get a better estimate.

So far I see that the teams in which I worked estimated the time needed for the project around 30-35% of the real time, this consistently over several projects. Unfortunately they keep doing it, but in my mind now I say: "ok they estimate 3 days, it is going to be more likely 11 or 12" and more or less it works.

also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy

The problem in my view is the culture. Everyone is used to hear "yes I can do this in 1 or 2 days" even if at the end it needs 6. They do not see the 6 and they remember the 1 or 2 days. Therefore if you say straight ahead "I need 6 days" they look horrified and they question your ability to work.

On the other side, if someone is used to get the work in 6 days when people say "I need only 2", then if someone says "I need 6 days" they may subconsciously think one will end in 18 days, that is unsustainable. Therefore they again look horrified and they question your ability to work.

Then one gets to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_Bra...rg_Airport , that likely will be obsolete at the time of the opening.