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(41C) Predictive Model for moth defoliation - Printable Version

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(41C) Predictive Model for moth defoliation - SlideRule - 12-28-2019 04:31 PM

An extract from Predictive Model to Forecast Douglas-Fir Tusock Moth Defoliation, USDA - FS-NR, Forest Pest Management, Report 86-10 (3450), JUN 1986, 8 pages

  The Douglas-fir tussock moth is a serious threat to western forests. In the past this defoliator has caused extensive damage to Douglas-fir and grand fir forests. Outbreaks are cyclic and occur about every 10 years in some areas.
  During the 1972-75 tussock moth outbreak in the Northwest, a model to predict Douglas-fir tussock moth damage for northern Idaho was developed … The purpose of the model is to provide a tool for the land manager to predict where and how serious tussock moth damage will be. The model will predict expected percent
defoliation in a stand depending upon certain conditions … A description of the model and its coefficients is shown in Table 1

  This paper describes the application of programmable calculators for using the model. Programmable calculators are efficient for the numerous calculations necessary in the model and for making the English to metric conversions. Programs have been developed for Hewlett Packard … 41C

  Instructions for data entry for each calculator are provided, and an example of three stands is shown in Table 2. Before the calculators can be used they must be programmed by following the steps listed in Appendix 1 or by using a preprogrammed magnetic card. The HP-41C can recall the program from memory if the calculator has the program catalogued …
  Table 2.--Instructions for … HP-41C … programmable calculators representing three different stand and site conditions.

  Appendix 1 … HP-41C program for rating Douglas-fir tussock moth susceptibility …