Soccer Tournament Predictor
06-13-2018, 07:09 AM
Post: #1
 Gamo Senior Member Posts: 458 Joined: Dec 2016
Soccer Tournament Predictor
Show how to predict soccer tournament using Microsoft Excel.

Anyone here got a way to do this on HP programmable calculator?

Gamo
06-13-2018, 08:01 AM
Post: #2
 pier4r Senior Member Posts: 1,939 Joined: Nov 2014
RE: Soccer Tournament Predictor
There is this: http://eloratings.net/

that is already a good model. At work we have a "bet" game (based on glory, not ) and I thought about doing some random simulation to estimate possible results but it is not that easy, as reality is always ultra complicated.

Nonetheless the elo score predicts good results 70% of the times more or less.

Wikis are great, Contribute :)
06-13-2018, 02:19 PM (This post was last modified: 06-13-2018 02:20 PM by pier4r.)
Post: #3
 pier4r Senior Member Posts: 1,939 Joined: Nov 2014
RE: Soccer Tournament Predictor
also https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03208

https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.01930

But the original article posted by Gamo is also full of nice data.

Wikis are great, Contribute :)
06-13-2018, 07:13 PM (This post was last modified: 06-13-2018 07:14 PM by pier4r.)
Post: #4
 pier4r Senior Member Posts: 1,939 Joined: Nov 2014
RE: Soccer Tournament Predictor
By the way I am exploring with the 50g, very slowly (a result each 2 days of computation - not that I could absorb things faster at the moment. Life happens), some properties of systems based on the Elo's formula or similar formulas. They are pretty interesting. As usual the code and logged results are in assembla:

Wikis are great, Contribute :)
06-14-2018, 01:16 AM
Post: #5
 Gamo Senior Member Posts: 458 Joined: Dec 2016
RE: Soccer Tournament Predictor
Who got the better chance to win this Football FIFA world Cup based on the pass statistical data.

Gamo
06-15-2018, 04:27 PM
Post: #6
 Gerson W. Barbosa Senior Member Posts: 1,125 Joined: Dec 2013
RE: Soccer Tournament Predictor
(06-13-2018 07:09 AM)Gamo Wrote:  Show how to predict soccer tournament using Microsoft Excel.

4 - 1 - 0 - 2 = 1
2 + 0 + 1 + 4 = 7

Notice the quite appropriate facepalm logo

This aftercasting technique appears to always work. Well, not quite so:

8 - 1 - 0 - 2 = 5
2 * 0 * 1 * 8 = 0

06-16-2018, 11:01 PM (This post was last modified: 06-16-2018 11:03 PM by Jlouis.)
Post: #7
 Jlouis Senior Member Posts: 594 Joined: Nov 2014
RE: Soccer Tournament Predictor
Some cups ago, an Octopus, IIRC, predicted many results correctly. Some people earn money betting on its prediction.

One very smart guy, expert in statistics, predicted that the Vegas Golden Nights would won the Stanley Cup (NHL hockey). Many people laughed, because this was the first season of Vegas Golden Nights, and nobody believed that they could win. They were champion of the west league, but made the final against Washington Capitals for the Stanley Cup and lost the play offs.

Unfortunately the statistical guy died in an airplane accident, before knowing that he would almost hit his prediction.
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