|Re: Plug for the MoHPC forum: 72 hours in a day|
Message #3 Posted by bill platt on 25 Apr 2009, 11:59 p.m.,
in response to message #2 by Steve Leibson
"Leibson's Law: It takes 10 years for any disruptive technology to become pervasive in the design community. "
I like this idea. It is really true with so many ideas. You can see this with Rapid Prototyping, with desktop 3D modeling; we will see this with 3D printing. 5 Years from now, the firms which make a lot of momey doing 3D printing for other firms, will have evloved--all their customers will be 3D printing!
And of course by 1985 the calculator was pretty pervasive. Of course by 1995 the PC was pervasive and the calculator dead.
Your idea also relates in some way to a thought of mine, which is that technologies achieve their best quality at about 10 years into production. After that, quality is optimized downward. You can see this in everything from tasters to of course, the Voyager calculators.
Some complicated things such as automobiles sort of have to be deconstructed to study this. 10 years after ABS invented or something like that.
There's just nothing like a 15c.
I wonder when the highest quality K&E slide rule came out?